# Subsidence risk map: Subsidence Report Risk and Claims

> The Subsidence Report Risk and Claims carries 3 published figures read from 2 sources' own pages, from 17 to 104 percent, read 12 October 2026.

Subsidence report · https://subsidencereport.co.uk/datasets/subsidence-report-risk-and-claims/ · computed 2026-10-28

**Range of the published figures:** 17 to 104 % (range 17 to 104 %; 3 published figures; 2 of 0 sources read publish one).

2 of the 0 named sources read in full publish a figure; 0 publish none, read 12 October 2026.

## By measure

| Breakdown | Median | Range | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| measure buildings and contents average claim payout change | 17 % | 17 to 17 % | 1 |
| measure home insurance claims costs as a share of premium | 48 % | 48 to 48 % | 1 |
| measure UK rainfall as a share of average, September 2026 | 104 % | 104 to 104 % | 1 |

## Every figure, with its source

One row per source: the figure the source's own page publishes, the page, and the day it was read.

| Source | Figure | Breakdown | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| [Met Office - weather and climate summaries](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/summaries) | 104 % | UK rainfall as a share of average, September 2026 | 2026-10-12 |
| [FCA general insurance value measures data 2025](https://www.fca.org.uk/data/general-insurance-value-measures-data-2025) | 48 % | home insurance claims costs as a share of premium | 2026-10-12 |
| [FCA general insurance value measures data 2025](https://www.fca.org.uk/data/general-insurance-value-measures-data-2025) | 17 % | buildings and contents average claim payout change | 2026-10-12 |

## The sentence each figure was read from (3)

- [Met Office - weather and climate summaries](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/summaries), read 2026-10-12: "Rainfall for the UK was around average (104% of the long-term average), but as often happens there was strong regional variation."
- [FCA general insurance value measures data 2025](https://www.fca.org.uk/data/general-insurance-value-measures-data-2025), read 2026-10-12: "at 48% for home insurance, combining buildings and contents (46% in 2024)."
- [FCA general insurance value measures data 2025](https://www.fca.org.uk/data/general-insurance-value-measures-data-2025), read 2026-10-12: "especially buildings and contents, where it rose by 17%."

## Methodology

Every row is a verbatim sentence read from the named source's own page through our fetch service on the date shown, hash-pinned to the stored read (the sha of the page's visible text; the raw page is mirrored to R2). 2 of the 0 named sources that could be read published a usable figure; 0 published none and are recorded as not published, never filled in; 12 could not be read (blocked, dead or unreachable) and count nowhere. The headline figures (median, minimum, maximum, quartiles) are over ONE figure per source for each breakdown it prices, in % (a source's median where its page yielded several accepted sentences for one breakdown), so a page that gives figures for several breakdowns gives one for each and N counts 3 figures, never sentences; 41 candidate sentence(s) were refused by a reviewer with the reason recorded. The fuller derivation this dataset is chartered to grow into (not yet what the figures above are; they are each source's own published figure as read): the BGS shrink-swell hazard class joined to the FCA's per-firm home-insurance claims frequency and average payout and to the Met Office's monthly rainfall and regional series. Across them the figures nobody publishes: hazard class by postcode district beside the claims season that follows a dry summer, the regional split of claim frequency against the regional split of shrinkable clay, and the year-on-year series that says whether a dry spring turns into a claim spike six months later - the one thing a homeowner with a new crack actually wants to know and the one thing the hazard map alone cannot tell him

## Sources

- [BGS GeoSure: shrink-swell](https://www.bgs.ac.uk/datasets/bgs-geosure-shrink-swell/) (the publisher's own terms; quoted for reporting and comment)
- [BGS GeoSure: shrink-swell subsurface](https://www.bgs.ac.uk/datasets/bgs-geosure-shrink-swell-subsurface/) (the publisher's own terms; quoted for reporting and comment)
- [BGS GeoClimate shrink-swell](https://www.bgs.ac.uk/datasets/geoclimate-shrink-swell/) (the publisher's own terms; quoted for reporting and comment)
- [BGS - swelling and shrinking soils](https://www.bgs.ac.uk/geology-projects/shallow-geohazards/clay-shrink-swell/) (the publisher's own terms; quoted for reporting and comment)
- [BGS - six datasets for assessing shrink-swell subsidence hazards](https://www.bgs.ac.uk/news/six-bgs-datasets-for-assessing-shrink-swell-subsidence-hazards/) (the publisher's own terms; quoted for reporting and comment)
- [BGS - shrink-swell property hazard information](https://www.bgs.ac.uk/datasets/bgs-geosure-shrink-swell/shrink-swell-property-hazard-information/) (the publisher's own terms; quoted for reporting and comment)
- [GeoSure shrink-swell deposits (data.gov.uk)](https://www.data.gov.uk/dataset/44bbc251-0dd4-4678-9ca6-19e4cf288642/geosure-shrink-swell-deposits2) (the publisher's own terms; quoted for reporting and comment)
- [FCA general insurance value measures data 2025](https://www.fca.org.uk/data/general-insurance-value-measures-data-2025) (the publisher's own terms; quoted for reporting and comment)
- [FCA general insurance value measures data 2024](https://www.fca.org.uk/data/general-insurance-value-measures-data-2024) (the publisher's own terms; quoted for reporting and comment)
- [Met Office - weather and climate summaries](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/summaries) (the publisher's own terms; quoted for reporting and comment)
- [Met Office - UK and regional series](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-and-regional-series) (the publisher's own terms; quoted for reporting and comment)
- [The Coal Authority](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/the-coal-authority) (the publisher's own terms; quoted for reporting and comment)

## Cite or embed

- The Subsidence Report Risk and Claims carries 3 published figures read from 2 sources' own pages, from 17 to 104 percent, read 12 October 2026.
- 2 of the 0 named sources read in full publish a figure; 0 publish none, read 12 October 2026.
- Subsidence Report Risk and Claims, measure buildings and contents average claim payout change: median 17 percent across 1 source, read 12 October 2026.
- Subsidence Report Risk and Claims, measure home insurance claims costs as a share of premium: median 48 percent across 1 source, read 12 October 2026.
- Subsidence Report Risk and Claims, measure UK rainfall as a share of average, September 2026: median 104 percent across 1 source, read 12 October 2026.

Cite as: "subsidencereport.co.uk Subsidence Report Risk and Claims", updated 2026-10-28, https://subsidencereport.co.uk/datasets/subsidence-report-risk-and-claims/.

CSV: https://subsidencereport.co.uk/datasets/subsidence-report-risk-and-claims.csv
JSON: https://subsidencereport.co.uk/datasets/subsidence-report-risk-and-claims.json
Embed (plain HTML, static link back): see https://subsidencereport.co.uk/datasets/subsidence-report-risk-and-claims/#median